Goldman Sachs raises Q2/Q3 copper forecast

Goldman Sachs has raised its near-term copper price forecast, citing a de-escalation in global trade tensions and resilient demand from top consumer China.In a note published Wednesday, the bank upgraded its Q2/Q3 price forecast to $9,330-$9,150/t from $8,620-$8,370/t previously, as high US imports are expected to deplete ex-US stocks this quarter.The drawdown, Goldman says, will tighten the London Metal Exchange’s forward spreads and discourage new speculative short positions, keeping copper prices elevated.The forecast also accounts for China’s copper demand, which has remained firm in 2025 mostly because of strong exports. However, as tariffs come into effect, demand is expected to slow down in the third quarter, it added.Goldman’s baseline forecast is for a significant slowdown in global copper demand in the second half of the year, with an imminent decision on US tariffs on copper imports.Trump’s copper tariff probe is expected soon, industry group saysHowever, if the decision is delayed to late 2025, it could keep copper trade flows disrupted and cause a supply crunch outside the US in the second half, especially in China, the bank noted.In the longer term, Goldman analysts predict that the copper market will move into a supply deficit in 2026, “driven by strong demand from electrification-related sectors and limited growth in mining.”This should push prices from an expected low of $9,000/t in October 2025 to more than $10,500 by the end of 2026, the bank wrote.Benchmark copper prices on the LME traded at $9,538/t by 1:10 p.m. ET, near its highest in a month.Read More: Copper market volatility to persist amid tariff risks, says WoodMac analystWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Mining.com Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Mining.com