New York, November 13, 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service raised its debt ratings of U.S. Airways Group, Inc. ("US Airways"): Corporate Family and Probability of Default to B3 from Caa1, Senior Secured First Lien Term Loan due 2014 to B2 from B3, and senior unsecured to Caa2 from Caa3. Moody's raised its ratings by one notch on certain of the company's Enhanced Equipment Trust Certificates ("EETCs") issued by US Airway's subsidiaries, U.S. Airways, Inc. or U.S. Airways, LLC (formerly America West Airlines, LLC) and affirmed the SGL-3 Speculative Grade Liquidity rating. The outlook is stable.
RATING RATIONALE
The upgrade of the ratings anticipates that US Airways will sustain the improved operating performance of recent quarters that has led to a higher cash balance and stronger credit metrics. Moody's believes that the company's traffic performance and airline operating metrics, which have been competitive with those of its larger and or higher rated peers are likely to remain so in upcoming periods. Leading market shares in its hubs, albeit in smaller U.S. cities, helps drive favorable operating results over the course of the cycle. Moody's expects US Airways -- and the industry -- to continue a disciplined approach to capacity, including further reductions in the event weaker economic growth leads to slowing demand for air travel, to help offset pressure on yields and profit margins.
The choice to forego fuel hedging has not been an impediment to profitable operations, particularly as the average spot price of jet fuel has been about $3.00 per gallon since 2010. The upgrade of the ratings anticipates that a sustained sharp increase in the cost of oil, and thus jet fuel, is not likely over at least the next 12 to 24 months. Moody's Oil and Gas team forecasts the average barrel price of Brent oil to fall below $100 in 2013. This compares to the actual average of about $110 so far in 2012. US Airways has achieved good profitability in the past 24 months notwithstanding a lack of fuel hedges.
The upgrades occur while US Airways and AMR Corporation ("American", not rated) have indicated that they are in discussions about a potential combination. Moody's believes that a transaction with American would enhance US Airways network and offer important opportunities for cost and revenue synergies. Such benefits would be balanced against the integration risks and any incremental financial risk that could arise from funding such a merger. But, Moody's believes that even in light of the potential for a transaction to emerge between US Airways and American, the B3 CFR rating is more reflective of the company's current risk profile.
The B3 Corporate Family rating reflects Moody's belief that the company can sustain credit metrics at levels supportive of the B3 rating category over the intermediate term, even as economic headwinds persist. US Airways' network, anchored by hubs in Charlotte, Philadelphia and Phoenix and its focus city of Washington, D.C., is mainly a U.S. domestic network that is smaller than those of its larger legacy airline peers. However, Moody's expects US Airways to manage its capacity with a focus on earning acceptable returns on capital, which will help it produce competitive airline operating and financial metrics. The B3 Corporate Family and SGL-3 Speculative Grade Liquidity ratings consider the company's adequate liquidity with cash balances as a percent of revenue having improved and becoming more comparable with industry peers.
The upgrade of the Corporate Family rating is the main driver of the selected upgrades on the EETC ratings. The A or B tranches that were upgraded primarily belong to the company's "modern" EETCs; those transactions issued after 2007 that benefit from cross-default and cross-collateralization of the underlying equipment notes. Moody's upgraded the A-tranche ratings of the modern EETCs by one notch to Ba1, leveling the ratings on these tranches with the existing Ba1 ratings on the A-tranches of the company's 1998-1 and 1999-1 EETCs. The collateral in the modern EETCs represent the younger, larger and more modern aircraft in US Airways fleet and, we believe have a higher probability of affirmation under a US Airways default scenario. However, the modern EETCs have higher loans-to-value than that of the 1998-1 and 1999-1, "legacy" EETCs whose equipment notes indentures lack cross-default or cross-collateralization provisions. The risk of the smaller collateral cushion on the A-tranches of the modern EETCs relative to that in the 1998 and 1999 transactions is balanced by their more attractive collateral and the more favorable terms of the equipment notes, resulting in the leveling of the ratings at Ba1. The rating on the A-tranche of 2001-1 is Ba2; the lack of cross-default or cross-collateralization but similar loans-to-value to the more recent EETCs are the drivers of this one notch rating differential. The Ba3 ratings on the B-tranches of 1998-1 and 1999-1 are one to three notches higher than the B-tranche ratings on the remainder of the company's EETCs. Lower loans-to-value are the driver of these relative ratings.
The stable outlook reflects Moody's anticipation of relatively stable demand and fuel prices in upcoming quarters, which should allow the company to sustain breakeven to modestly positive free cash flow generation, notwithstanding higher capital expenditures with increasing deliveries of Airbus A321 aircraft. There is little upwards pressure on the ratings above the B3 level at this time, particularly given the event risk associated with a potential business combination. However, a positive rating action could follow if the company was to further strengthen its metrics profile, even while significantly increasing its size. Sustaining Debt to EBITDA below 5.5 times, Funds from operations + interest to interest above 3.0 times and positive free cash flow generation could support an upgrade. A negative rating action could follow if unrestricted cash declines below $1.8 billion. The inability to control non-fuel operating costs or to sustain competitive yields, either of which would challenge the company to maintain its operations over the long-term could also lead to a downgrade. Debt to EBITDA that surpasses 7.0 times, FFO + Interest to Interest that approaches 2.0 times or sustained negative free cash flow generation could pressure the ratings.
Issuer: US Airways Group, Inc.,
..Upgrades:
....Probability of Default Rating, Upgraded to B3 from Caa1
....Corporate Family Rating, Upgraded to B3 from Caa1
....Senior Secured Bank Credit Facility, Upgraded to B2, LGD3, 35% from B3, LGD3, 37%
Issuer: US Airways, Inc., ..Upgrades: ....Senior Secured Enhanced Equipment Trust Certificates
......1998-1 C, Upgraded to B3 from Caa1
......1999-1 C, Upgraded to B3 from Caa1
......2000-3 C, Upgraded to B3 from Caa1
......2001-1 G, Upgraded to Ba2 from Ba3
......2001-1 C, Upgraded to B2 from B3
......2010-1A, Upgraded to Ba1 from Ba2
......2010-1B, Upgraded to B1 from B2
......2011-1A, Upgraded to Ba1 from Ba2
......2011-1B, Upgraded to B1 from B2
......2012-1A, Upgraded to Ba1 from Ba2
......2012-1B, Upgraded to B1 from B2
..Affirmations:
....Senior Secured Enhanced Equipment Trust Certificates
......America West Airlines, Inc.
........1998-1 A, at Ba3 ........1998-1 B, at B3 ........1999-1 G1, at B1 ........2000-1 G1, at B1 ........2001-1 G1, at B1 ......US Airways, Inc. ........1998-1 A, at Ba1 ........1998-1 B, at Ba3 ........1999-1 A, at Ba1 ........1999-1 A2, at Ba1 ........1999-1 B, at Ba3 ........2000-2 G, at Ba3 ........2000-3 G, at Ba3 ........2010-1 C, at B3 ........2011-1 C, at B3 ........2012-1 C, at B3 Issuer: Hillsborough County Aviation Authority, FL ,
..Upgrades:
....Senior Secured Revenue Bonds, Upgraded to Caa2, LGD5, 85% from Caa3, LGD5, 88%
Issuer: Indianapolis Airport Authority, IN ,
..Upgrades:
....Revenue Bonds , Upgraded to Caa2, LGD5, 85% from Caa3, LGD5, 88%
Issuer: Pennsylvania Economic Dev. Fin. Auth. ,
..Upgrades:
....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Upgraded to a range of Caa2, LGD5, 85 % from a range of Caa3, LGD5, 88 %
Issuer: Phoenix Industrial Development Authority, AZ ,
..Upgrades:
....Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Upgraded to a range of Caa2, LGD5, 85 % from a range of Caa3, LGD5, 88 %
The principal methodology used in rating US Airways was the Global Passenger Airlines Industry Methodology published in May 2012 and Enhanced Equipment Trust And Equipment Trust Certificates published in December 2010. Other methodologies used include Loss Given Default for Speculative-Grade Non-Financial Companies in the U.S., Canada and EMEA published in June 2009. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.
US Airways, along with US Airways Shuttle and US Airways Express, operates nearly 3,200 flights per day and serves more than 200 communities in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, Europe, the Middle East, the Caribbean, Central and South America.
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Jonathan Root VP - Senior Credit Officer Corporate Finance Group Moody'sInvestors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653Michael J. Mulvaney MD - Corporate Finance Corporate Finance Group JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653(C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
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