ARGENTINA: Investors Bets On A Technical Tie In Primary Elections

(RTTNews) - The financial market in Argentina could face different scenarios on Monday, depending on how the primary elections in Argentina unfold this weekend, according to analysts.

The primary elections seek to define the political parties that will compete in the October 22 legislative elections, which will renew a third of the Senate and almost half of the House of Representatives chairs.

Although the primary elections only define candidates, the Mauricio Macri's administration seeks to accumulate forces to ensure its governability and obtain a majority in Congress, so that its economic projects are approved. Also, both Kirchner and Macri look at the elections as a measure of popular discontent before the 2019 presidential elections.

Currently, the Argentinean Congress is controlled by an opposition majority, dominated by the Kirchnerist party Frente para la Victoria and allies (36 senators and 72 representatives).

According to a survey from Personal Portfolio, the former Argentinean President Cristina Kirchner is set to obtain 33.8% of the votes, compared to the 31.5% for the most popular candidate from the ruling party Cambiemos, Esteban Bullrich. The figures are seen as a technical draw.

Bull Market Brokers' analyst, Mauro Mazza, noted that even if Kirchner wins by a narrow margin of up to two percentage points, the market should open upwards.

Mazza explained that in the largest provinces, such as Mendoza, Cordoba and Santa Fe, Cambiemos is expected to win the election. That, together with good results in Buenos Aires province, would give the ruling party a significant national majority in Congress.

However, if Cristina Kirchner wins by a more than five percentage points margin, the Merval should open with heavy losses, and the dollar could rise, as the result would be seen as a political defeat for Macri.