New York, August 10, 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service downgraded The Washington Post Company's (WPO) senior unsecured rating to Baa1 from A3, concluding the review for downgrade initiated on July 11, 2012. The downgrade reflects the ongoing earnings pressure at Kaplan due to enrollment declines and competitive pressures and Moody's view that WPO's credit metrics will remain at weaker levels. The company's Prime-2 commercial paper rating is not affected. The rating outlook is negative.
Downgrades:
..Issuer: Washington Post Company (The)
....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Downgraded to Baa1 from A3
Outlook Actions:
..Issuer: Washington Post Company (The)
....Outlook, Changed To Negative From Rating Under Review
RATINGS RATIONALE
The ongoing earnings pressure within Kaplan Higher Education (KHE, which is WPO's largest operating division based on revenue) and a weakening of WPO's credit metrics are the primary drivers of the downgrade. KHE's enrollment declines are moderating, but Moody's believes the full effect of the drop will sustain earnings pressure into 2013. There continues to be uncertainty regarding the level and timing at which KHE's enrollment, revenue and cash flow may ultimately stabilize. In Moody's opinion, greater competition for students that are more likely to succeed in Kaplan's programs, and the threat that a high unemployment rate has on incoming student demand remain headwinds. There is also potential risk related to compliance with the DOE's 90/10 rule (KHE indicated programs representing approximately 22% of its revenue may not meet the 90/10 rule in 2013 absent changes and if current trends continue), although Moody's anticipates Kaplan's strategies to maintain compliance with the 90/10 rules will minimize the adverse effects.
Moody's believes that cost reductions and the potential for a recovery in student demand among KHE's target market segment could stabilize revenue and earnings over the intermediate term. For-profit schools also serve a niche in higher education as their target students are currently not a primary focus of most traditional four-year not-for-profit colleges. However, Moody's believes revenue pressure in the higher education industry will prompt schools, aided by technology advances in online and distance learning, to seek new revenue opportunities by broadening the student base. This is likely to increase competition throughout the higher education market and favor globally recognized institutions with significant financial resources. Moody's believes KHE's long-term investment orientation and commitment to positive student outcomes will be beneficial as it faces potential new competition, but Moody's views pressure on the business in a changing environment as likely.
Credit metrics have deteriorated as the performance of WPO's other primary earnings contributors (cable television systems and local television stations) has not been sufficient to offset the drag from the deterioration at Kaplan. Debt -to-EBITDA (2.1x LTM 6/30/12 incorporating Moody's standard adjustments) and free cash flow-to-debt (6.4% LTM 6/30/12 incorporating Moody's standard adjustments) are not consistent with the prior A3 rating given the company's operating profile. Moody's believes WPO will continue to maintain a conservative balance sheet and liquidity position. This provides the company financial flexibility to manage through the near-term pressures on Kaplan with a focus on enhancing the long-term health of the business.
WPO's Baa1 senior unsecured and Prime-2 commercial paper ratings reflect good cash flow generated from a diverse portfolio of businesses and a conservative financial orientation that has sustained low leverage. The company is diversified within and outside of media, with the higher education business, cable television, and a mix of mature local television stations the primary earnings drivers. KHE provides some revenue balance to the media properties as it tends to perform well in the initial stages of economic downturns (when job losses prompt individuals to invest in additional education), although persistently high unemployment weakens student demand and enrollment. Low debt-to-EBITDA leverage (2.1x LTM 6/30/12 incorporating Moody's standard adjustments) and a strong liquidity position are important rating considerations that are byproducts of WPO's disciplined investment strategy. However, Moody's believes the company is not opposed to leveraging transactions for the right strategic opportunity and lately it has more aggressively used its existing cash, free cash flow and asset sale proceeds to repurchase shares in response to drops in its stock price.
The negative rating outlook reflects that free cash flow-to-debt is weak for the rating and will need to improve to avoid additional negative rating pressure. There is continued uncertainty regarding the timing and level at which KHE and WPO's revenue and cash flow will stabilize and this also contributes to the negative rating outlook.
Moody's views the likelihood of an upgrade as low given the pressures at Kaplan. However, the rating outlook could return to stable if Kaplan's enrollment and operating performance stabilize sustainably, liquidity remains strong, debt-to-EBITDA is sustained below 2.25x, and free cash flow-to-debt improves and is sustained in a 15% range or higher.
Weak operating performance, acquisitions or cash distributions to shareholders that leads to debt-to-EBITDA above 2.25x or sustains free cash flow-to-debt below 15% could lead to a downgrade. As free cash flow-to-debt is currently below this level, an improvement is necessary to maintain the rating. An inability to stabilize operating performance and cash flow with particular focus on Kaplan could thus lead to a downgrade. Rating pressure could also occur if the company's solid liquidity position were to weaken, although this is not expected.
Please see ratings tab on WPO's issuer page on www.Moodys.com for the last credit rating action and the rating history. Please see the credit opinion posted to www.Moodys.com for additional information on WPO's ratings.
The principal methodology used in rating WPO was the Large Global Diversified Media Industry Methodology published in December 2010. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.Moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
WPO, headquartered in Washington, D.C., is a diversified education and media company whose operations consist of: Kaplan education (WPO's largest segment, which consists of higher education, test prep and professional training businesses), cable television systems, television broadcasting, and newspaper publishing. Consolidated revenue was approximately $4.1 billion for the LTM 6/30/12 period.
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John E. Puchalla VP - Senior Credit Officer Corporate Finance Group Moody'sInvestors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653John Diaz MD - Corporate Finance Corporate Finance Group JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653(C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
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