New York, December 10, 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service upgraded Realogy Group LLC's ( "Realogy") Corporate Family and Probability of Default ratings to B3 and the 12.375% senior subordinated notes instrument rating to Caa2, and confirmed the B1 senior secured 1st lien, Caa1 one and a half lien and certain Caa2 senior unsecured debt ratings. Moody's also withdrew the ratings on the 2nd lien, certain senior unsecured and certain senior subordinated debt. In addition, the Speculative Grade Liquidity rating was raised to SGL-3 from SGL-4. The rating actions reflect Realogy's equity issuance, conversion of subordinated debt and repayment of certain other debt. This concludes the review of Realogy's long term debt ratings that began on October 4, 2012. The rating outlook is stable.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The B3 Corporate Family rating (CFR) incorporates Moody's view that Realogy's capital structure has made meaningful progress towards being stabilized following the issuance of primary equity, and is therefore more sustainable although still highly leveraged. The over $3 billion of debt reduction from the equity issuance and the conversion of subordinated debt to equity results in an approximately 50% annual interest expense reduction. In addition, existing home sale market conditions continue to improve, providing further support for the upgrade.
IMPROVING RESULTS EXPECTED IN 2013
"The better tone in the US housing market supports our expectations for 4% revenue growth and 12% EBITDA growth by Realogy in 2013," noted Edmond DeForest, Moody's Senior Analyst.
In the next 12 to 18 months, Moody's expects debt to EBITDA and EBITDA less capital expenditures over interest expense to make progress toward falling below 7.0 times and rising above 2.0 times, respectively (compared to pro-forma debt to EBITDA and interest coverage of 8.3 and 1.3 times, respectively, for the twelve months ended September 30, 2012). Even so, financial leverage will be elevated compared to other companies also rated in the B3 category. EBITDA growth combined with a lower interest burden should result in positive free cash flow of approximately $260 million in 2013. Moody's expects free cash flow to be applied to debt reduction. Moody's notes the limited operating history of Realogy Group LLC as a public company and the risk of further debt restructuring in a downside scenario.
The two notch increase in the Probability of Default rating reflects a 50% mean expected family recovery rate given Realogy's expected capital structure going forward; this results in the Probability of Default rating at the same level as the CFR. The Speculative Grade Liquidity rating of SGL-3 reflects Realogy's lower annual interest rate burden, approximately $60 million of cash (pro forma for the expected repayment of the 12.375 % senior subordinated notes in 2013) and the expectation for positive free cash flow.
The stable rating outlook reflects Moody's expectation for sales growth of 4% to 5% and EBITDA margin expansion that will drive adjusted EBITDA toward $750 million in the next 12 to 18 months. The ratings could be lowered if weaker than expected existing home sale market conditions results in declining revenues, profitability or free cash flow, or if Realogy does not continue to make steady progress to reduce financial leverage towards levels consistent with other companies at the B3 rating level. A downgrade could occur if Moody's comes to expect debt to EBITDA to be sustained at about 7.0 times and free cash flow to debt to remain near 0%. The ratings could be upgraded if Moody's expects debt to EBITDA and free cash flow to debt to be sustained at less than 6 times and about 5%, respectively.
The following ratings were upgraded:
Corporate Family rating, to B3 from Caa1
Probability of Default rating, to B3 from Caa2
Speculative grade liquidity rating, to SGL-3 from SGL-4
12.375% senior subordinated notes due 2015 to Caa2 (LGD6, 95%) from Caa3 (LGD5, 70%)
The following ratings were confirmed (and LGD assessments updated):
Senior secured revolving credit facility due 2016, B1 (to LGD2, 25% from LGD 1, 6%)
Senior secured term loan due 2016, B1 (to LGD2, 25% from LGD 1, 6%)
Senior secured synthetic letter of credit facility due 2013/2016, B1 (to LGD2, 25% from LGD 1, 6%)
Senior secured first lien notes due 2020, B1 (to LGD2, 25% from LGD 1, 6%)
Senior secured notes (one and half lien) due 2020, Caa1 (to LGD5, 71% from LGD 2, 22%)
Senior secured (one and half lien) notes due 2019, Caa1 (to LGD5, 71% from LGD 2, 22% )
11.5% senior unsecured notes due 2017, Caa2 (to LGD5, 88% from LGD 3, 44%)
12% senior unsecured notes due 2017, Caa2 (to LGD5, 88% from LGD 3, 44%)
The following ratings were withdrawn:
Second lien term loan due 2017
10.5% senior unsecured cash pay notes due 2014
11.00%/11.75% senior unsecured toggle notes due 2014
11% senior subordinated convertible notes due 2018
The principal methodology used in rating Realogy Corp was the Global Business & Consumer Service Industry Rating Methodology published in October 2010. Other methodologies used include Loss Given Default for Speculative-Grade Non-Financial Companies in the U.S., Canada and EMEA published in June 2009. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.
Realogy is a provider of real estate and relocation services. The company operates in four segments: real estate franchise services, company owned real estate brokerage services, relocation services and title and settlement services. The franchise brand portfolio includes Century 21, Coldwell Banker, Coldwell Banker Commercial, ERA, Sotheby's International Realty and Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate. Realogy's largest shareholder, with a less than 50% equity stake, is an affiliate of Apollo Management, L.P.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
The Global Scale Credit Ratings on this press release that are issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU are endorsed by Moody's Investors Service Ltd., One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E 14 5FA, UK, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that has issued a particular Credit Rating is available on www.moodys.com.
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
Information sources used to prepare the rating are the following : parties involved in the ratings, parties not involved in the ratings, public information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information.
Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entity, obligation or credit satisfactory for the purposes of issuing a rating.
Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a rating is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for general disclosure on potential conflicts of interests.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for information on (A) MCO's major shareholders (above 5%) and for (B) further information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities as well as (C) the names of entities that hold ratings from MIS that have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%. A member of the board of directors of this rated entity may also be a member of the board of directors of a shareholder of Moody's Corporation; however, Moody's has not independently verified this matter.
Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.
Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history.
The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.
Edmond DeForest Vice President - Senior Analyst Corporate Finance Group Moody'sInvestors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653Robert Jankowitz Associate Managing Director Corporate Finance Group JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653(C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE, INC. ("MIS") AND ITS AFFILIATES ARE MOODY'S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES, AND CREDIT RATINGS AND RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS PUBLISHED BY MOODY'S ("MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS") MAY INCLUDE MOODY'S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES. MOODY'S DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL, FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO: LIQUIDITY RISK, MARKET VALUE RISK, OR PRICE VOLATILITY. CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY'S OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT. CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE, SELL, OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES. NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR. MOODY'S ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE, HOLDING, OR SALE.
ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY LAW, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, COPYRIGHT LAW, AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED,DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODY'S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT.
All information contained herein is obtained by MOODY'S from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors, however, all information contained herein is provided "AS IS" without warranty of any kind. MOODY'S adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODY'S considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, MOODY'S is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process. Under no circumstances shall MOODY'S have any liability to any person or entity for (a) any loss or damage in whole or in part caused by, resulting from, or relating to, any error negligent or otherwise or other circumstance or contingency within or outside the control of MOODY'S or any of its directors, officers, employees or agents in connection with the procurement, collection, compilation, analysis, interpretation, communication, publication or delivery of any such information, or (b) any direct, indirect, special, consequential, compensatory or incidental damages whatsoever (including without limitation, lost profits), even if MOODY'S is advised in advance of the possibility of such damages, resulting from the use of or inability to use, any such information. The ratings, financial reporting analysis, projections, and other observations, if any, constituting part of the information contained herein are, and must be construed solely as, statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or hold any securities. Each user of the information contained herein must make its own study and evaluation of each security it may consider purchasing, holding or selling.
NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS, MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY SUCH RATING OR OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODY'S IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER.
MIS, a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody's Corporation ("MCO"), hereby discloses that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MIS have, prior to assignment of any rating, agreed to pay to MIS for appraisal and rating services rendered by it fees ranging from $1,500 to approximately $2,500,000. MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MIS's ratings and rating processes. Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities, and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%, is posted annually at www.moodys.com under the heading "Shareholder Relations -- Corporate Governance -- Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policy."
Any publication into Australia of this document is by MOODY'S affiliate, Moody's Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657, which holds Australian Financial Services License no. 336969. This document is intended to be provided only to "wholesale clients" within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. By continuing to access this document from within Australia, you represent to MOODY'S that you are, or are accessing the document as a representative of, a "wholesale client" and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to "retail clients" within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001.
Notwithstanding the foregoing, credit ratings assigned on and after October 1, 2010 by Moody's Japan K.K. ("MJKK") are MJKK's current opinions of the relative future credit risk of entities, credit commitments, or debt or debt-like securities. In such a case, "MIS" in the foregoing statements shall be deemed to be replaced with "MJKK". MJKK is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody's Group Japan G.K., which is wholly owned by Moody's Overseas Holdings Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO.
This credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness or a debt obligation of the issuer, not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors. It would be dangerous for retail investors to make any investment decision based on this credit rating. If in doubt you should contact your financial or other professional adviser.