Autopista Monterrey Cadereyta -- Moody's changes outlook on Autopista Monterrey Cadereyta ratings to stable

Mexico, December 11, 2012 -- Moody's de Mexico S.A. de C.V. has changed the outlook to stable from negative for the ratings on the Certificados Bursatiles Fiduciarios of Autopista Monterrey Cadereyta. The ratings are affirmed at A1.mx (Mexico National Scale) and Ba1 (Global scale, local currency). The change in outlook stems from the turnaround growth in tolled transactions which are showing a growth of 6% through the third quarter of 2012. While the improvement falls far short of recouping the close to 30% drop in tolled transactions since 2008, it is a change in the right direction in an environment in which the public safety and drug related security issues appear to have tempered. The rating is unlikely to go up at this time, but could improve over the next 18-24 months with a return to traffic in the range of that experienced in 2008 that would once again provide high operating margins and strong debt service coverage above 1.5 times. On the flip side, additional drops in traffic that leads to a 40% - 50% decline from that experienced in 2008, and/or declines in revenue of another 5% -- 10% is likely to push the rating down once again.

RATINGS RATIONALE

Revenue is expected to rebound to more typical levels this year, and through September toll collections are trending to be up 20% from that of the same period last year. Revenue is also trending above that of the closing financial model, which points to the toll road's ability to meet debt service requirements going forward given that annual debt service remains level at an average of 45 million UDIs through the life of the debt.

The debt service coverage (DSCR) ratio in 2011 was 1.08 times, after accounting for capital spending for reconstruction related to the damage caused by Hurricane Alex. The funds would have otherwise been used to prepay debt per the trust agreement restrictions, after meeting the mandatory debt service. The debt service coverage ratio for the first semi-annual period of 2012 was 1.15 times indicating more robust net revenues given the increase in the traffic activity. The second semi-annual the year will be made on December 17 and the DSCR is expected to be at least at similar levels. Funds will be sufficient to make a prepayment in the amount of approximately MXP 26 million, indicating the improvement in the financial footing of the toll road project.

Located in the State of Nuevo León (Ba1/A1.mx/NEG), the Autopista Monterrey Cadereyta is a 29km toll road which serves as one of the primary east-west approaches to the municipality of Monterrey (Ba2/A2.mx/STA) metropolitan area. The road provides an important connector to one of the largest Pemex refineries in the country, which is located along the toll road in Cadereyta. Nuevo León's economy is among the most dynamic in Mexico, and is the third largest economy in Mexico contributing 7.5% of national Gross Domestic Product (GDP). GDP per capita is approximately 180% of the national level.

An important part of the metro area's economic base consists of industrial conglomerates and multinational corporations, which support a high level of economic diversification. Additionally, the road is a vital route for traffic to the U.S. via its connection to the federal road that leads to Laredo, Tx. Approximately 60% of the trade from Mexico goes through the crossing at Laredo, thus making truck traffic an important component of the road's users.

For a more detailed discussion on the credit fundamentals of Autopista Monterrey Cadereyta, please see the most recent Credit Opinion.

Autopista Monterrey Cadereyta has historically been rated under the Operating Toll Roads rating methodology and is in transition to being rated under the Government Owned Toll Roads rating methodology, which was updated and published in October 2012. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com.mx for a copy of the methodologies.

The date of the last Credit Rating Action was August 11, 2011.

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