PharmaPoint: Chronic Heart Failure - United Kingdom Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022

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PharmaPoint: Chronic Heart Failure - United Kingdom Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022
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PharmaPoint: Chronic Heart Failure - United Kingdom Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022

Summary

GlobalData has released its new Country report, "PharmaPoint: Chronic Heart Failure - United Kingdom Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022". The chronic heart failure (CHF) market is a mature market that has been slowly overtaken by generic drugs, and more branded products are expected to lose market exclusivity during the next few years. GlobalData predicts that the major global barriers that will play a crucial role in narrowing the global growth of the CHF market over the forecast period include the sparsely populated CHF pipeline and an increasing number of generic competitors in a market that is already heavily laden with generic drugs. However, the market entry of entry of Novartis' LCZ-696, the first novel, branded CHF drug to enter the market in five years, will noticeably enhance the overall market size during the forecast period. LCZ-696 is currently being evaluated in a trial for patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HF-REF), but if clinical trial data continue to demonstrate the drug's efficacy in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HF-PEF), and it gains approval for use in this population, it will be the first drug to show efficacy in this largely underserved patient population. In addition, increased use of MRAs over the forecast period in all seven major markets (7MM) will contribute to the increase in the global CHF market size.

GlobalData anticipates that the growth in the UK CHF market will be the result of the market entry of a novel treatment, LCZ-696, and an increase in the use of MRAs over the forecast period. LCZ-696 has the potential to replace ACE therapies in the treatment of CHF. LCZ-696 is a combination drug with Diovan as one of its ingredients; therefore, it is reasonable to expect that LCZ-696 will also steal patient share from Diovan and other ARBs, which are given to patients who cannot tolerate ACE inhibitors.

Scope

- Overview of CHF including epidemiology, etiology, symptoms, diagnosis, pathology and treatment guidelines as well as an overview on the competitive landscape.
- Detailed information on the key drugs in the UK including product description, safety and efficacy profiles as well as a SWOT analysis.
- Sales forecast for the top drugs in the UK from 2012-2022.
- Analysis of the impact of key events as well the drivers and restraints affecting the UK CHF market.

Reasons to buy

- Understand and capitalize by identifying products that are most likely to ensure a robust return
- Stay ahead of the competition by understanding the changing competitive landscape for CHF
- Effectively plan your M&A and partnership strategies by identifying drugs with the most promising sales potential
- Make more informed business decisions from insightful and in-depth analysis of drug performance
- Obtain sales forecast for drugs from 2012-2022 in the UK

1 Table of Contents
1 Table of Contents 5
1.1 List of Tables 8
1.2 List of Figures 9
2 Introduction 10
2.1 Catalyst 10
2.2 Related Reports 10
3 Disease Overview 12
3.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology 12
3.1.1 Etiology 12
3.1.2 Pathophysiology 14
3.2 Prognosis 18
3.3 Quality of Life 18
3.4 Symptoms 19
4 Disease Management 21
4.1 Treatment Overview 22
4.1.1 Pharmacological Treatments 24
4.1.2 Mechanical Devices 29
4.2 UK 30
4.2.1 Diagnosis and Referral Patterns 30
4.2.2 Clinical Practice 31
5 Competitive Assessment 33
5.1 Overview 33
5.2 Strategic Competitor Assessment 33
5.3 Drug Profiles 36
5.3.1 Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme (ACE) Inhibitors 36

5.3.2 Diuretics 38
5.3.3 Angiotensin Receptor Blockers 40
5.3.4 Beta Blockers 49
5.3.5 Procoralan (ivabradine) 57
5.3.6 Mineralocorticoid Receptor Antagonists 60
5.3.7 Digoxin 62
6 Opportunity and Unmet Need 64
6.1 Overview 64
6.2 Lack of Therapies for HF-PEF Patients 65
6.3 Lack of Therapies for Patients with Renal Impairment 66
6.4 Diagnosis of Asymptomatic Left Ventricular Dysfunction 66
6.5 Treatment of Patients with Multiple Comorbidities 67
6.6 Increase in Survival of CHF Patients 67
6.7 Unmet Needs Gap Analysis 68
6.8 Opportunity: Treatment of Patients with HF-PEF 69
6.9 Opportunity: Therapies for Patients with Renal Impairment and Multiple Comorbidities 69
6.10 Opportunity: New Drugs that Show Increase in Survival of CHF Patients 69
7 Pipeline Assessment 70
7.1 Overview 70
7.2 Promising Drugs in Clinical Development 71

7.2.1 LCZ-696 72
8 Market Outlook 77
8.1 United Kingdom 77
8.1.1 Forecast 77
8.1.2 Key Events 80
8.1.3 Drivers and Barriers 80
9 Appendix 82
9.1 Bibliography 82
9.2 Abbreviations 88
9.3 Methodology 91
9.4 Forecasting Methodology 91
9.4.1 NYHA Class Segmentation of Total Prevalent CHF Population 91
9.4.2 Diagnosed CHF Population 92
9.4.3 Drug-Treated CHF Population 92
9.4.4 Patient Population Breakdown: HF-REF versus HF-PEF 92

9.4.5 Treatment of HF-REF versus HF-PEF 93
9.4.6 Drugs Included in Each Therapeutic Class 93
9.4.7 Launch and Patent Expiry Dates 93
9.4.8 General Pricing Assumptions 94
9.4.9 Drugs Assumptions 95
9.4.10 Generic Erosion 98
9.4.11 Pricing of Pipeline Agents 98
9.5 Physicians and Specialists Included in this Study 99
9.6 Survey of Prescribing Physicians 100
9.7 About the Authors 101
9.7.1 Author 101
9.7.2 Global Head of Healthcare 101
9.8 About GlobalData 102
9.9 Disclaimer 102

List of Tables


Table 1: Leading Causes of CHF 13
Table 2: Other Causes of CHF 13
Table 3: Compensatory Mechanisms in CHF 14
Table 4: Typical Symptoms of CHF 19
Table 5: NYHA Classification of HF Based on Symptoms and Physical Ability of Patients 20
Table 6: ACC/AHA Classification of HF Based on Disease Progression 21
Table 7: NYHA Classification of HF Based on Symptoms and Physical Activity of Patients 21
Table 8: Commonly Used Treatment Guidelines for CHF 23
Table 9: Most Prescribed Drugs for CHF by NYHA Class in the UK, 2012 25
Table 10: Select Products Used for CHF Treatment, 2012 35
Table 11: Product Profile – Diovan 43
Table 12: Diovan SWOT Analysis, 2012 44
Table 13: Product Profile – Atacand 47
Table 14: Atacand SWOT Analysis, 2012 47
Table 15: Product Profile – Carvedilol 52
Table 16: Carvedilol SWOT Analysis, 2012 54
Table 17: Product Profile – Nebivilol 55
Table 18: Nebivilol SWOT Analysis, 2012 56
Table 19: Product Profile – Procoralan 58
Table 20: Procoralan SWOT Analysis, 2012 59
Table 21: Overall Unmet Needs – Current Level of Attainment 64
Table 22: Clinical Unmet Needs – Gap Analysis, 2013 68
Table 23: CHF – Promising Late-Stage Pipeline, 2012 71
Table 24: Comparison of Therapeutic Classes in Development for CHF, 2012 71
Table 25: Product Profile – LCZ-696 73
Table 26: LCZ-696 SWOT Analysis, 2012 76
Table 27: Sales Forecasts ($m) for CHF in the United Kingdom, 2012–2022 78
Table 28: Key Events Impacting Sales for CHF in the United Kingdom, 2012–2022 80
Table 29: CHF Market – Drivers and Barriers in the United Kingdom, 2012–2022 80
Table 30: Key Launch or Approval Dates 93
Table 31: Key Patent Expiries 94
Table 32: Physicians Surveyed, By Country 100

List of Figures

Figure 1: Worsening HF Leading to Chronic Disease 16
Figure 2: Drug-Treatment Rates of Patients Diagnosed with CHF in the 7MM, by NYHA Class 24
Figure 3: Treatment of CHF Patients by Drug Class, United Kingdom, 2012 32
Figure 4: Sales for CHF ($m) in the United Kingdom, 2012–2022 79

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Pathology Industry: PharmaPoint: Chronic Heart Failure - United Kingdom Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022

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