IDC Cuts PC Shipment Forecast For 2013

(RTTNews) - Market intelligence services provider International Data Corp. or IDC Tuesday trimmed its forecast for worldwide personal computer shipments in fiscal 2013, adding that the year would face the most severe yearly contraction on record. The upsurge in popularity of tablets and smartphones, and change in everyday computing pattern is really pausing a threat to PC market. Now a day, users are turning to smarter devices for computing, accessing the Web, connecting to social media, sending emails, as well as using a variety of apps.

According to the IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, customers' interest in PCs has remained limited, leading to little indication of positive growth beyond replacement of existing systems.

IDC noted that total PC shipments will remain just above 300 million during the forecast, which is barely ahead of 2008 volumes.

For 2013, total PC shipments are now expected to fall by 10.1 percent, compared to previous projection of a decline of 9.7 percent. Earlier in May, IDC was expecting a decline of 7.8 percent in emerging markets. Total PC shipments would be 314.2 million units in 2013, compared to 349.4 million units recorded in 2012.

Total PC shipments in emerging markets, which is considered to be a primary growth engine of the PC market, are expected to be 182.1 million units in this year, down 11.3 percent from last year. In Mature markets, shipments would total 132 million units, down 8.4 percent from a year ago.

In 2014, total shipments would decline by an additional 3.8 percent before turning slightly positive in the longer term. In 2017, total PC shipments are projected to grow 0.4 percent as growth in emerging markets would offset lower shipments in mature markets.

IDC noted that the commercial market is faring notably better than the consumer market in 2013. Commercial shipments are down by 5 percent year-over-year, while consumer shipments are down nearly 15 percent. As per the PC Tracker, the relative stability is due to a mix of more stable PC investment planning, a smaller impact from tablets, and to replacements of Windows XP systems before the end of support planned for 2014.

Going ahead, a small decline is projected for both consumer and commercial segments in 2014 with near flat growth in the longer term.

Jay Chou, Senior Research Analyst, Worldwide Quarterly PC Trackers at IDC, said, "...PC usage is nonetheless declining each year as more devices become available. And despite industry efforts, PC usage has not moved significantly beyond consumption and productivity tasks to differentiate PCs from other devices. As a result, PC lifespans continue to increase, thereby limiting market growth."

IDC further said that the Windows-based tablet market is expected to grow to 40.8 million units in 2017 from less than 9 million in 2013 and less than 1 million in 2011. The Windows devices would account for 10 percent of a combined PC & Windows Tablet market by 2016 - making them an important growth segment for the PC ecosystem, IDC added.

According to Loren Loverde of IDC, the emergence of 2-in-1 devices designed to function in both clamshell and slate configurations, along with Windows-based tablets themselves, would provide some new volume for the Windows platform as well as the PC vendors and other parts of the traditional PC ecosystem in coming years.