Comerica Bank's Michigan Index Improves

DALLAS, Feb. 26, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica Bank's Michigan Economic Activity Index increased in December to a level of 117.9. December's reading is 20 points, or 20 percent, above the index cyclical low of 97.9. The index averaged 117.8 points for all of 2019, 0.8 points below the index average for 2018. November's index reading was 117.4.

Comerica Bank's Michigan Economic Activity Index improved in December, breaking a string of three consecutive monthly declines. Increased residential construction and the normalization of automobile production after the resolution of the GM/UAW strike were key factors. The five positive index components in December were nonfarm employment, housing starts, house prices, light vehicle production and hotel occupancy. The four negative components were unemployment insurance claims (inverted), industrial electricity demand, total state trade and state sales tax revenue. Trade–related uncertainty for the Michigan economy diminished at the end of 2019 with the resolution of the Phase 1 trade with China and the USMCA trade agreement. The direct and indirect effects of the coronavirus outbreak in both Asia and Europe represents threats to supply chains in Michigan as well as to final demand for Michigan exports. We expect to see continued weak global trade data in 2020. The Center for Disease Control has issued a warning that it expects to see an increasing number of coronavirus cases in the U.S. This could result in a drag on U.S. consumer confidence in the months ahead, with negative implications for U.S. auto sales this spring. However, the increase in home sales and new home construction in recent months is good news for the auto industry.

The Michigan Economic Activity Index consists of nine variables, as follows: nonfarm payroll employment, continuing claims for unemployment insurance, housing starts, house price index, industrial electricity sales, auto assemblies, total trade, hotel occupancy and sales tax revenue. All data are seasonally adjusted. Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Index levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.

Comerica Bank, with one of the largest banking center networks in Michigan, is a subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA), a financial services company headquartered in Dallas, Texas, and strategically aligned by three business segments: The Business Bank, The Retail Bank, and Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on relationships, and helping people and businesses be successful. In addition to Michigan and Texas, Comerica Bank locations can be found in Arizona, California, and Florida, with select businesses operating in several other states, as well as in Canada and Mexico.

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SOURCE Comerica Bank