RATINGS RATIONALE
"Following the announcement that the South London Healthcare NHS Trust may be dissolved and that its PFI liabilities may be transferred to King's College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, today's rating action reflects Moody's expectation that a process will be put in place for an orderly transfer of the South London Healthcare NHS Trust's PFI payment obligations to another highly creditworthy entity" says Johan Verhaeghe, a Moody's Vice President - Senior Credit Officer and lead analyst for United Healthcare (Bromley) Ltd.
In 1998 ProjectCo entered into a concession agreement ("CA") with the Bromley Hospital NHS Trust in relation to the construction of an acute general hospital and a mental health unit in Orpington, Kent, and the provision of certain services during the term of the CA (such works and services, together "the Project"). On 1 April 2009, the Bromley Hospitals NHS Trust merged with two other trusts to form a new successor organisation, the South London Healthcare NHS Trust (the "Trust"). On 29 of June 2012, Moody's placed the Bonds on review for downgrade following the announcement by the Secretary of State for Health that, as a result of accumulating a material deficit, the Trust may be subject to the Unsustainable Provider Regime ("UPR"), whereby a Trust Special Administrator ("TSA") may be appointed to run it. The UPR was enacted in July 2012 and a TSA was appointed by the Secretary of State for Health to work up recommendations to resolve the Trust's financial problems on a sustainable basis.
As part of the UPR process, the TSA prepared a draft report, published on 29 October 2012, with draft recommendations. This report will be followed by a consultation process running until 13 December 2012, a final report due 7 January 2013 and a Secretary of State decision, with respect to the future of the Trust, by 1 February 2013. The draft report recommends that the Trust should be dissolved and other organisations should take over the management and delivery of the NHS services it currently provides. This is subject to a transition period of possibly up to three years. With respect to the Trust's liabilities relative to ProjectCo, the preferred option is to transfer these liabilities to King's College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust. The draft recommendation is also that the Department of Health provides direct support to cover the excess costs of the Trust's two main PFI contracts (which includes the Project).
The draft report's recommendations provide some comfort that a process will be put in place to deal with the Trust's PFI liabilities on both a short- and long-term basis. The negative outlook on the Bonds' A2 rating reflects the uncertainty created by (1) the identity and credit quality of the Project's future offtaker, albeit the preferred option is King's College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust; (2) the fact that protective legislation, such as section 70 of the National Health Service Act 2006, is untested; and (3) the current high level of political focus and sensitivity surrounding PFI project procurements.
The A2 rating of the Bonds reflects as positives: (1) the relatively straightforward nature of the services and, consequently, low cash flow volatility; (2) the credit profile, ability and experience of the operations-phase services providers; (3) a range of creditor protections included within ProjectCo's financing structure, such as debt service and maintenance reserves; (4) our expectation that there is a likelihood of high recovery for the bondholders in the event of any default by ProjectCo; and (5) supportive legislation, particularly section 70 of the NHS Act 2006, which substantially mitigates the Trust's credit risk. The rating is constrained, however, by the Project's high leverage, which reduces the Project's ability to withstand unexpected stress.
WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING UP/DOWN
Given the Bonds' high rating and negative outlook, Moody's considers it highly unlikely that it will upgrade the Bonds in the near future.
Moody's could downgrade the Bonds if: (1) the implementation of section 70 of the NHS Act 2006 (according to which Secretary of State must transfer the liabilities of a failing NHS trust to an NHS body, the Secretary of State or the Welsh Ministers) doesn't lead to a transfer of the Trust's PFI liabilities to a credit worthy entity; or (2) there was any indication that the Trust's financial difficulties would affect the Project, through a delayed payment, for example. Furthermore, we could downgrade the rating if: (3) lifecycle cost assumptions were to prove inadequate; or (2) the level of service failure points suffered by ProjectCo appeared likely to increase the possibility of termination of the Project
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in this rating was Operating Risk in Privately-Financed Public Infrastructure (PFI/PPP/P3) Projects published in December 2007. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
ProjectCo is owned by United Healthcare (Bromley) Holdings Limited, which is in turn owned by United Healthcare (Bromley) Group Limited, a company jointly owned by Innisfree Nominees Limited (which holds legal title on behalf of Innisfree M&G PPP LP) and Semperian PPP Investment Partners No. 2 Limited, each of which owns 50% of United Healthcare (Bromley) Group Limited.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
The rating has been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.
Information sources used to prepare the rating are the following: parties involved in the ratings, parties not involved in the ratings, public information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information.
Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entity, obligation or credit satisfactory for the purposes of issuing a rating.
Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a rating is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.
Moody's Investors Service may have provided Ancillary or Other Permissible Service(s) to the rated entity or its related third parties within the two years preceding the credit rating action. Please see the special report "Ancillary or other permissible services provided to entities rated by MIS's EU credit rating agencies" on the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for general disclosure on potential conflicts of interests.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for information on (A) MCO's major shareholders (above 5%) and for (B) further information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities as well as (C) the names of entities that hold ratings from MIS that have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%. A member of the board of directors of this rated entity may also be a member of the board of directors of a shareholder of Moody's Corporation; however, Moody's has not independently verified this matter.
Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.
Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history. The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.
Johan Verhaeghe VP - Senior Credit Officer Infrastructure Finance Moody's Investors Service Ltd. One Canada SquareCanary WharfLondon E14 5FA United Kingdom JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456 SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454 Neil Griffiths-Lambeth Senior Vice President Infrastructure Finance JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456 SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service Ltd. One Canada SquareCanary WharfLondon E14 5FA United Kingdom JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456 SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454 (C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE, INC. ("MIS") AND ITS AFFILIATES ARE MOODY'S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES, AND CREDIT RATINGS AND RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS PUBLISHED BY MOODY'S ("MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS") MAY INCLUDE MOODY'S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES. MOODY'S DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL, FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO: LIQUIDITY RISK, MARKET VALUE RISK, OR PRICE VOLATILITY. CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY'S OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT. CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE, SELL, OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES. NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR. MOODY'S ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE, HOLDING, OR SALE.
ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY LAW, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, COPYRIGHT LAW, AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED,DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODY'S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT.
All information contained herein is obtained by MOODY'S from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors, however, all information contained herein is provided "AS IS" without warranty of any kind. MOODY'S adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODY'S considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, MOODY'S is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process. Under no circumstances shall MOODY'S have any liability to any person or entity for (a) any loss or damage in whole or in part caused by, resulting from, or relating to, any error negligent or otherwise or other circumstance or contingency within or outside the control of MOODY'S or any of its directors, officers, employees or agents in connection with the procurement, collection, compilation, analysis, interpretation, communication, publication or delivery of any such information, or (b) any direct, indirect, special, consequential, compensatory or incidental damages whatsoever (including without limitation, lost profits), even if MOODY'S is advised in advance of the possibility of such damages, resulting from the use of or inability to use, any such information. The ratings, financial reporting analysis, projections, and other observations, if any, constituting part of the information contained herein are, and must be construed solely as, statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or hold any securities. Each user of the information contained herein must make its own study and evaluation of each security it may consider purchasing, holding or selling.
NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS, MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY SUCH RATING OR OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODY'S IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER.
MIS, a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody's Corporation ("MCO"), hereby discloses that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MIS have, prior to assignment of any rating, agreed to pay to MIS for appraisal and rating services rendered by it fees ranging from $1,500 to approximately $2,500,000. MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MIS's ratings and rating processes. Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities, and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%, is posted annually at www.moodys.com under the heading "Shareholder Relations -- Corporate Governance -- Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policy."
Any publication into Australia of this document is by MOODY'S affiliate, Moody's Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657, which holds Australian Financial Services License no. 336969. This document is intended to be provided only to "wholesale clients" within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. By continuing to access this document from within Australia, you represent to MOODY'S that you are, or are accessing the document as a representative of, a "wholesale client" and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to "retail clients" within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001.
Notwithstanding the foregoing, credit ratings assigned on and after October 1, 2010 by Moody's Japan K.K. ("MJKK") are MJKK's current opinions of the relative future credit risk of entities, credit commitments, or debt or debt-like securities. In such a case, "MIS" in the foregoing statements shall be deemed to be replaced with "MJKK". MJKK is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody's Group Japan G.K., which is wholly owned by Moody's Overseas Holdings Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO.
This credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness or a debt obligation of the issuer, not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors. It would be dangerous for retail investors to make any investment decision based on this credit rating. If in doubt you should contact your financial or other professional adviser.