New York, December 07, 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) downgraded the ratings of two classes and affirmed three classes of GMAC Commercial Mortgage Securities, Inc., Series 2002-C1 as follows:
Cl. K, Affirmed at Caa1 (sf); previously on Jun 2, 2011 Downgraded to Caa1 (sf)
Cl. L, Affirmed at Caa3 (sf); previously on Dec 9, 2011 Downgraded to Caa3 (sf)
Cl. M, Downgraded to C (sf); previously on Sep 2, 2010 Downgraded to Ca (sf)
Cl. N, Affirmed at C (sf); previously on Sep 2, 2010 Downgraded to C (sf)
Cl. X-1, Downgraded to Caa3 (sf); previously on Feb 22, 2012 Downgraded to Caa2 (sf)
RATINGS RATIONALE
The downgrade of the principal class is due primarily to the accelerated timing of realized losses affecting the bottom of the capital stack.
The affirmations are due to key parameters, including Moody's loan to value (LTV) ratio, Moody's stressed debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) and the Herfindahl Index (Herf), remaining within acceptable ranges. Based on our current base expected loss, the credit enhancement levels for the affirmed classes are sufficient to maintain their current ratings.
The rating of the IO Class, Class X-1, is downgraded to reflect the credit performance of its referenced classes.
Moody's rating action reflects a base expected loss of approximately 32% of the current deal balance. At last review, Moody's cumulative base expected loss was approximately 25%. Moody's provides a current list of base losses for conduit and fusion CMBS transactions on moodys.com at http://v3.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF215255. Depending on the timing of loan payoffs and the severity and timing of losses from specially serviced loans, the credit enhancement level for investment grade classes could decline below the current levels. If future performance materially declines, the expected level of credit enhancement and the priority in the cash flow waterfall may be insufficient for the current ratings of these classes.
The performance expectations for a given variable indicate Moody's forward-looking view of the likely range of performance over the medium term. From time to time, Moody's may, if warranted, change these expectations. Performance that falls outside the given range may indicate that the collateral's credit quality is stronger or weaker than Moody's had anticipated when the related securities ratings were issued. Even so, a deviation from the expected range will not necessarily result in a rating action nor does performance within expectations preclude such actions. The decision to take (or not take) a rating action is dependent on an assessment of a range of factors including, but not exclusively, the performance metrics.
Primary sources of assumption uncertainty are the extent of growth in the current macroeconomic environment given the weak pace of recovery and commercial real estate property markets. Commercial real estate property values are continuing to move in a modestly positive direction along with a rise in investment activity and stabilization in core property type performance. Limited new construction and moderate job growth have aided this improvement. However, a consistent upward trend will not be evident until the volume of investment activity steadily increases for a significant period, non-performing properties are cleared from the pipeline, and fears of a Euro area recession are abated.
The hotel sector is performing strongly with nine straight quarters of growth and the multifamily sector continues to show increases in demand with a growing renter base and declining home ownership. Recovery in the office sector continues at a measured pace with minimal additions to supply. However, office demand is closely tied to employment, where growth remains slow and employers are considering decreases in the leased space per employee. Also, primary urban markets are outperforming secondary suburban markets. Performance in the retail sector continues to be mixed with retail rents declining for the past four years, weak demand for new space and lackluster sales driven by internet sales growth. Across all property sectors, the availability of debt capital continues to improve with robust securitization activity of commercial real estate loans supported by a monetary policy of low interest rates.
Moody's central global macroeconomic scenario is for continued below-trend growth in US GDP over the near term, with consumer spending remaining soft in the US. Hurricane Sandy may skew near-term economic data but is unlikely to have any long-term macroeconomic effects. Primary downside risks include: a deeper than expected recession in the euro area accompanied by deeper credit contraction; the potential for a hard landing in major emerging markets, including China, India and Brazil; an oil supply shock; albeit abated in recent months; and given recent political gridlock, excessive fiscal tightening in the US in 2013 leading the US into recession. However, the Federal Reserve has shown signs of support for activity by continuing with quantitative easing.
The methodologies used in this rating were "Moody's Approach to Rating U.S. CMBS Conduit Transactions" published in September 2000, "Moody's Approach to Rating CMBS Large Loan/Single Borrower Transactions" published in July 2000 and "Moody's Approach to Rating Structured Finance Interest-Only Securities" published in February 2012. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.
Moody's review incorporated the use of the Excel-based CMBS Conduit Model v 2.61 which is used for both conduit and fusion transactions. Conduit model results at the Aa2 (sf) level are driven by property type, Moody's actual and stressed DSCR, and Moody's property quality grade (which reflects the capitalization rate used by Moody's to estimate Moody's value). Conduit model results at the B2 (sf) level are driven by a pay down analysis based on the individual loan level Moody's LTV ratio. Moody's Herfindahl score (Herf), a measure of loan level diversity, is a primary determinant of pool level diversity and has a greater impact on senior certificates. Other concentrations and correlations may be considered in our analysis. Based on the model pooled credit enhancement levels at Aa2 (sf) and B2 (sf), the remaining conduit classes are either interpolated between these two data points or determined based on a multiple or ratio of either of these two data points. For fusion deals, the credit enhancement for loans with investment-grade underlying ratings is melded with the conduit model credit enhancement into an overall model result. Fusion loan credit enhancement is based on the credit assessment of the loan which corresponds to a range of credit enhancement levels. Actual fusion credit enhancement levels are selected based on loan level diversity, pool leverage and other concentrations and correlations within the pool. Negative pooling, or adding credit enhancement at the underlying rating level, is incorporated for loans with similar credit assessments in the same transaction.
Moody's review also incorporated the CMBS IO calculator ver1.1 which uses the following inputs to calculate the proposed IO rating based on the published methodology: original and current bond ratings and credit estimates; original and current bond balances grossed up for losses for all bonds the IO(s) reference(s) within the transaction; and IO type corresponding to an IO type as defined in the published methodology. The calculator then returns a calculated IO rating based on both a target and mid-point . For example, a target rating basis for a Baa3 (sf) rating is a 610 rating factor. The midpoint rating basis for a Baa3 (sf) rating is 775 (i.e. the simple average of a Baa3 (sf) rating factor of 610 and a Ba1 (sf) rating factor of 940). If the calculated IO rating factor is 700, the CMBS IO calculator ver1.1 would provide both a Baa3 (sf) and Ba1 (sf) IO indication for consideration by the rating committee.
Moody's uses a variation of Herf to measure diversity of loan size, where a higher number represents greater diversity. Loan concentration has an important bearing on potential rating volatility, including risk of multiple notch downgrades under adverse circumstances. The credit neutral Herf score is 40. The pool has a Herf of 5 compared to a Herf of 14 at Moody's prior review.
In cases where the Herf falls below 20, Moody's also employs the large loan/single borrower methodology. This methodology uses the excel-based Large Loan Model v 8.5 and then reconciles and weights the results from the two models in formulating a rating recommendation. The large loan model derives credit enhancement levels based on an aggregation of adjusted loan level proceeds derived from Moody's loan level LTV ratios. Major adjustments to determining proceeds include leverage, loan structure, property type, and sponsorship. These aggregated proceeds are then further adjusted for any pooling benefits associated with loan level diversity, other concentrations and correlations.
Moody's ratings are determined by a committee process that considers both quantitative and qualitative factors. Therefore, the rating outcome may differ from the model output.
The rating action is a result of Moody's on-going surveillance of commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) transactions. Moody's monitors transactions on a monthly basis through a review utilizing MOST® (Moody's Surveillance Trends) Reports and a proprietary program that highlights significant credit changes that have occurred in the last month as well as cumulative changes since the last full transaction review. On a periodic basis, Moody's also performs a full transaction review that involves a rating committee and a press release. Moody's prior transaction review is summarized in a press release dated December 9, 2011. Please see the ratings tab on the issuer / entity page on moodys.com for the last rating action and the ratings history.
DEAL PERFORMANCE
As of the November 15, 2012 distribution date, the transaction's aggregate certificate balance has decreased by 97% to $22 million from $710 million at securitization. The Certificates are collateralized by 7 mortgage loans ranging in size from less than 6% to 30% of the pool. The pool contains no loans with investment grade credit assessments and no defeased loans.
There are no loans on the master servicer's watchlist. Twenty-two loans have liquidated from the pool, resulting in an aggregate realized loss of $23.4 million (27% average loan loss severity). Currently, four loans, representing 75% of the pool, are in special servicing. The largest specially serviced loan is the Blenheim Apartments Loan ($6 million -- 30% of the pool), which is secured by a 156-unit, high-end, multifamily property located in Houston, Texas. Property occupancy was 92% in March 2012 compared to 93% at year-end 2010 reporting. Property-level performance has been stable, with a slight recent uptick in performance from higher rents. A modification was recently granted by the special servicer to extend the loan maturity to January 2013 in order to provide the loan sponsor additional time to arrange a loan payoff.
The second-largest loan in special servicing is the Barton Press Loan ($4 million -- 20% of the pool). The loan is secured by a vacant 192,000 square foot industrial property situated on a 9-acre site located in West Orange, New Jersey. The property was included in a recent municipal re-zoning from industrial to residential use. Property improvements are in very poor condition and will likely have to be razed to make way for future economic use of the site. The loan transferred to special servicing in July 2011 due to imminent monetary default. The loan was included in a November 2012 note sale, but failed to sell. The asset was deemed non-recoverable by the master servicer in August 2012.
The third loan in special servicing is the Whispering Pines Apartments Loan ($3 million -- 16% of the pool). The loan is secured by a 207-unit multifamily property located in Colorado Springs, Colorado, built in 1968. Property occupancy was 96% in October 2012 compared to 95% at year-end 2011 and 92% at year-end 2010. The loan transferred to special servicing in November 2011 due to imminent maturity default. According to the servicer, the loan sponsor has had trouble refinancing the property due to its age. After rejecting several modification proposals, the special servicer will likely pursue a foreclosure strategy.
Moody's estimates an aggregate $6 million loss (40% expected loss severity overall) for all specially serviced loans.
Moody's was provided with full-year 2011 and partial year 2012 operating results for 100% of the three loans in performing pool. Excluding specially-serviced loans, Moody's weighted average LTV is 75% compared to 68% at last full review. Moody's net cash flow reflects a weighted average haircut of 12.0% to the most recently available net operating income. Moody's value reflects a weighted average capitalization rate of 10.0%.
Excluding troubled loans, Moody's actual and stressed DSCRs are 0.94X and 1.51X, respectively, compared to 1.73X and 1.69X at last review. Moody's actual DSCR is based on Moody's net cash flow (NCF) and the loan's actual debt service. Moody's stressed DSCR is based on Moody's NCF and a 9.25% stressed rate applied to the loan balance.
The top three performing loans represent 25% of the pool. The largest loan is the Safeway Gaithersburg Loan ($3 million -- 12% of the pool), which is secured by a ground lease at the "Goshen Oaks Center", a strip retail shopping center located in Gaithersburg, Maryland. The property is 100% leased to Safeway Inc. (Moody's senior unsecured rating Baa3, stable outlook) through September 2029. The property has been 100% occupied since securitization. Performance has been stable. The loan is fully-amortizing. Moody's current LTV and stressed DSCR are 94% and 1.16X, respectively, compared to 98% and 1.11X at last review.
The second-largest loan is the Walgreen Oklahoma City Loan ($2 million -- 7% of the pool), which is secured by a 15,000 square foot retail property located in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. The property is 100% leased to Walgreen Co. (Moody's senior unsecured rating Baa1, negative outlook) under a triple-net lease through December 2020. Performance has been stable. The loan is fully-amortizing. Moody's current LTV and stressed DSCR are 62% and 1.75X, respectively, compared to 66% and 1.63X at last review.
The third-largest loan is the Walgreens Lafayette Loan ($1 million -- 6% of the pool). The loan is secured by a 15,000 square foot retail property located in downtown Lafayette, Louisiana. The property is 100% leased to Walgreen Co. (Moody's senior unsecured rating Baa1, negative outlook) under a triple-net lease through December 2020. Performance has been stable. The loan is fully-amortizing. Moody's current LTV and stressed DSCR are 56% and, 1.92X respectively, compared to 62% and 1.76X at last review.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
The Global Scale Credit Ratings on this press release that are issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU are endorsed by Moody's Investors Service Ltd., One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E 14 5FA, UK, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that has issued a particular Credit Rating is available on www.moodys.com.
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
Information sources used to prepare the rating are the following: parties involved in the ratings, parties not involved in the ratings, public information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information.
Moody's did not receive or take into account a third-party assessment on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets or financial instruments related to the monitoring of this transaction in the past six months.
Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entity, obligation or credit satisfactory for the purposes of issuing a rating.
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The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.
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Wesley Flamer-Binion Associate Analyst Structured Finance Group Moody'sInvestors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653Keith Banhazl Vice President - Senior Analyst Structured Finance Group JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653(C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
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